Clegg Factor
- A very popular politician
It comes as no surprise to me that Nick Clegg "won" last night's Leader's Debate. What surprises me, however, is that this comes as any sort of shock to anyone, least of all Gordon Brown and David Cameron.
After all, they handed it to him.
To some extent, both leaders of the main parties focussed on attacking each other - leaving Clegg to point out that they sounded as bad as each other. Presumably, they didn't see him as a threat.
Also, at points both of them said they agreed with him. In the event of a hung parliament between the Tories and Labour, after all, Clegg becomes Kingmaker, so both parties need to keep him on-side. And by agreeing with him, they add to his credibility. By them both agreeing with him, he is almost elevated to not just a contender as leader, but the only contender.
That's actually clearly not the case. The demographics and voting patterns of the UK are such that it would take a far more significant swing towards the Liberal Democrats than seems feasible in a three week time period for them to be able to form a majority government. Indeed, what we see looks like posturing in preparation for a hung parliament.
16 April, 2010
