
I've done some stats.
I've done quite a lot of stats, actually, looking at the following question:
"If the UK was a federal system, what might it look like?"
I'm doing this on the basis of splitting up England, partly because I can, and partly because I think it makes sense.
The idea, you see, is to extend the idea of the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly to the rest of the Kingdom, and I've been using the EU seats, pretty much because they're there, but also because they have the benefit of splitting up the UK in to some fairly equally sized chunks, some of which I strongly suspect have different characteristics.
I've looked at results of General Elections over the past fifty years, and I've started with Scotland because it's always going to be one of the most contentious.
In 1959 - the first election I'm looking at, the Conservative and Unionist Party took 28 seats - almost 40% of the seats available. By 2010, there is one Conservative MP in Scotland.
The interesting thing is when they lost the seats and who they lost them to.
28 is the peak in the period I'm looking at. There was something of a decline in Conservative support over the next 20 years, but even in 1979, 22 Scottish Tories joined the first Thatcher Government.
Even in 1983, 21 Scottish Tory MPs were elected. Then, in 1987 the number of MPs dropped to 10. It seems likely that the main event triggering this was the closure of a number of pits in the North of England, Scotland and Wales, with the consequent loss of 20,000 jobs in these areas.
The seats lost don't show any real pattern. While some are in mining areas, others (eg Edinburgh Central) are not. The main benefactor was the Labour party, who had been losing some ground to the Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party.
Between the elections in 1987 and 1992, the Government introduced the Community Charge ("Poll Tax"). This was pretty much universally hated. Virtually impossible to enforce and woefully mistargeted at the best of times, it was also introduced in Scotland a year earlier than England. It's often cited as one of the reasons why "Scotland will never vote Tory again," which is an ironic impact of a choice by a party that ostensibly seeks to strengthen and maintain the Union between the various parts of the UK.
Despite this, there was one more Conservative MP after the 1992 election. By 1997, however, there were none. With one exception, this remains the case.
On 2010 results, over 50% of the seats in Scotland are represented by Labour MPs, and this would have been the case consistently over the last 50 years.